Friday Recap: German Implosions, American Explosions... and the English

After this morning's somewhat underwhelming matches, here are some thoughts on yesterday's matches:

read more...

Win, Loss, or Draw - What are your Team's Chances to Win it All?

It's number time on the Goalpo.st today as we look at the history of championship winning teams and their first round performances.

In the past 14 world cups, going back to Germany's first title and the start of the modern game in 1954:

- No championship team has ever lost their opening game.
- Only two teams, England and Italy, have ever drawn their opening game and gone on to win it all.
- The other 12 champions all won their opening games.

What does this mean for your team? Well, if you are Italy or England supporter today, take heart, not only is it still possible - statistically speaking - but your team is the only one to have already done it before! If you are Spaniard, sorry, but better luck next time.

Now, from the stats above you might assume that championship teams don't lose opening round games, but in fact they just don't lose their first opening round game.

Of the 14 winners:

11 did not lose a single game in their opening rounds. HOWEVER, only 3 of those eleven were undefeated in their opening games. That means that the most common results for a championship team is to advance from the 1st round with no losses and at least one draw.

Fun side note - Italy won it all in 1982 after advancing to the knockouts with three straight draws....

read more...

1-1 Is the Loneliest Number

As an English man living in the States, the pain of last Saturday's draw was even more accentuated by the fact I had to face my American friends and colleagues after coolly assuring them a week earlier that it would be a walk in the park for us - after all how could our great football-loving nation, whose forefathers invented the beautiful game, fail to impress when playing against an opposition who don’t even call the sport by its rightful and proper name.

Alas it wasn't to be. I should be thankful for the bride whose wedding I was at last Saturday - she banned televisions, and in doing so gave me 90 minutes of my life which would have otherwise been painfully wasted! On returning to Philly, even the man who greeted me at immigration couldn't resist a dig as he stamped my passport and proudly told me he went to High School with Tim Howard. I think I mumbled some obscenities about Green and forced a smile ….

If it’s any consolation, it gave me some comfort to discover the Americans still haven’t grasped the intricacies of the scoring when I read the front page of the New York Post the following day …..

read more...

It was the best of games, it was the worst of games

Best and worst of the first "round" of World Cup competition?

BEST
Germany - Australia
Mackenzie Phillips's father couldn't have molested Australia worse than Germany did. Tim Cahill got ejected for not tucking in his shirt.

U.S.A. - England
Can't even pretend impartiality, but wasn't it rich to watch a man's soul be crushed in instant replay? Robert Green for President!

Brazil - North Korea
Disregarding all the geopolitical curiosity of North Korea's participation, this was a relatively competitive match that showcased a baffling goal from Maicon as well as a well-orchestrated attack from the Democratic People's Republic of Football. Pyongyang 2018?

WORST
France - Uruguay
I was already kind of hungover after the opening match, and this tedious display made me want to vomit in my own mouth just to get rid of the taste.

Ivory Coast - Portugal
They kicked it back and forth for a while. Ronaldo won a Tony. I don't know.

BEST
Everybody in America has learned the word "vuvuzela."

WORST
Everybody in America is talking about the "vuvuzela." Nobody gives a damn about football.

BEST
Setting your alarm so you can get up early enough to go to the bar.

WORST
Passing out at 5:00 because you've been up drinking for 8 hours.

Feel free to play at home!

read more...

The Goal Post's Day 2 Recap - Good and Bad Goalkeeping, and an Asian Assault

Today was an interesting day in the Cup, with top teams that performed below expectations due to exceptional, or exceptionally poor, goalkeeping, and an excellent performance from South Korea in an under card match. I encourage you to check out The Goal Post's liveblog replays for play-by-plays and very colorful commentary. Here's my take on the day's matches, and what they mean:

South Korea v Greece

South Korea may have managed the first victory of the Cup, but they still have a tough road ahead of them to qualify, as Greece was definitely the lowest-seeded team in the group. Nigeria is a tough and physical team, and while South Korea seems to have perfected the dive tactic (many of their players have played for Italian clubs), I think that some muscling will go uncalled, and Nigeria will mount confident attacks against a weak defense that went largely untested by Greece. I really don't see Greece doing anything but tying, and even that would take some luck.

Argentina v Nigeria

Higuain had at least three excellent chances to score for Argentina, with well-delivered passes that he controlled on the first touch. On each occasion, he did the one thing that strikers are paid not to do: shoot the ball at the goalkeeper. Messi looked mesmerizing with his beautiful curving shots on goal, but his efforts provoked equally excellent displays of goalkeeping rather than goals. Some might say that Argentina looked weak in this game, edging out a mere 1-0 victory, but the score doesn't speak to their offensive effort. I'll admit that Argentina has some work to do, but they still looked strong. Their potential goals, and therefore the scoreboard, were mitigated by the outstanding performance from Vincent Enyeama, Nigeria's Goalkeeper.

As for Nigeria, if they can continue playing like they did in the last fifteen minutes of today's game, they can definitely beat Greece, and probably beat South Korea. Once they calmed down, and realized that that they had run with Argentina for 70 minutes while conceding only one goal, they started to attack with more confidence. Nigeria took a cluster of shots in the final fifteen, and some were on target. Perhaps they were just inspired by the world-class play from their keeper (Enyeama was challenged often, and was often up to the challenge), but at the end of the game Nigeria was looking ready to proceed through the group.

England v USA

Despite my earlier predictions to the contrary, England probably deserved to win this game. Not so much because they looked particularly powerful, but because the US really didn't produce much offense, and their lone goal was the product of horrendous goalkeeping. Robert Green will surely regret his loose ball-handling today. Also, Wayne Rooney played like he'd been drinking two six-packs of Castle Lager a night since landing in South Africa, and was often outpaced by the US defense. There were a few incredible opportunities that he flat out missed, and at one point he went up for a header that sailed wildly over the crossbar, and fell to the ground like he'd been shot in the head. He should heed the commercial he starred in, and write the future, not erase it.

The USA played fairly well, but Tim Howard excelled. Dempsey's goal was not the finest shot from the American arsenal, but they played with the confidence of a world-class international team (even if their execution was lacking). Luckily, England should be the hardest opponent they face in the group, but they need to score more than 1 goal per game if they're going to advance.

So those are the thoughts. Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow. Check out our live blogs in the morning.

read more...

Ooops! Which Brit Screwed up Worse than Robert Green?

The answer is expensive British HD broadcast corporation ITV, which managed to switch to a commercial for Hyundai just before Gerrard scored his goal. That's right, England fans in England who paid for expensive HD sports TV at home got to miss their only goal for the night as a reward.

Here is the story

Here is a clip so you can see for yourself what that felt like!

read more...

Group C Predictions

Group C (in order of FIFA Rankings)
England (8)
USA (14)
Slovenia (25)
Algeria (30)

Group B is an interesting group, pitting a constantly-improving USA against a resurgent England and, to a lesser extent, a well-drilled Slovenia and an altogether unimpressive Algeria. I think this group provides the interesting (and exciting) prospect for a rare circumstance in group play: a three-way tie. England, USA, and Slovenia could each score 6 points, leading to a three-way tie for first place, with the winners chosen on goal differential. Here's how it could happen.

Game by Game Predictions

England v USA (w)

England is the stronger side, to be sure. But, the USA is hungry, and I suspect that England will take the better part of the game to coalesce as a team. The loss of Rio Ferdinand, while perhaps not devastating to the captaincy, is a hole in the defense. His likely replacement is Ledley King. Even if King can fill the technical boots of Ferdinand, England is still playing a central defense that hasn't had much time to get acquainted. The USA will have to capitalize on this early, if they have a chance of winning. If the game goes scoreless into the second half, expect England to draw first blood, with the USA rallying for a tying goal in the 80s. After that it'd be anyone' guess. But the USA will go up early, and England will tie things up just before half time. After a rest at half-time, England and the game will quiet down, until the USA retake the lead, after some well-timed substitutions.
Final result England 1, USA 2.

Algeria v Slovenia (w)
For those of us who are less familiar with the Baltic Peninsula, like me, we can think of Slovenia as another Russia, a team with pace that is supremely disciplined and well-drilled. Slovenia also defeated Russia to qualify for the Cup. Algeria, defeated Egypt, which doesn’t impress me greatly. Basically I think that this is a must-win game for both teams, but I’m not sure how much of a difference this can bring to Algeria’s gameplay. Slovenia should focus on offense, and may give up an early goal, but they’ll pull through.
Final result Algeria 1, Slovenia 2.

Slovenia (w) v USA
After beating England, the USA will not so much underestimate the Slovenians, as be too giddy with their victory over Engalnd to stay in the moment. I fear they will go down early, at which point the match will become a tenacios and close war of defense
Final result Slovenia 1, USA 0

England (w) v Algeria
After a startling loss to the USA, again, England will come back with an imperial vengeance, wiping the pitch with Algeria like it's 1942 in North Africa. Rooney will contribute to to 2 goals, but could get a yellow-card for general douche-baggery. England's defense will have solidified, barring another injury, and the Gerrard-Lampard twins should begin producing plays rather than competing for them.
Final result England 3, Algeria 0


Slovenia v (w) England
Cruising through their bruising of Algeria, England will overcome a determined Slovenia side in a game where England will need to win, and Slovenia will strive to rack up goals for qualifying. With both teams pressing the attack, space will be left at the back for some excessive scoring. England will pull it out, however, and show class under pressure that they will have lacked against the USA.
Final result Slovenia 2, England 3

USA (w) v Algeria

The USA, shocked by their loss to Slovenia, will not take defeat for an answer from Algeria. Likewise, Algeria will not want to go home with absolutely no points, and will play with intense defense. This will keep the game low-scoring, but the USA, as I said, will not take no for an answer. Late in the game, already up 1-0, they will surge through for another goal, knowing that goal differential could make the difference as England battles Slovenia at the same time.
Final result USA 2, Algeria 0


FINAL GROUP RESULTS
1. England (6 Points) GD: +3
2. USA (6 Points) GD: +2
3. Slovenia (6 Points) GD: +1
4. Algeria (0 Points)


So that would be a very interesting progression for Group C, the three-way tie. Unfortunately, I don't really expect that to happen. Any ties in derail that possibility entirely, but it is still an intellectually exciting prospect to consider. Most likely, It'll be England and USA on top, but not a three-way tie. I still bet that USA beats England today, and I will be extremely surprised if Algeria makes any real progress.

read more...