Showing posts with label Group F. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Group F. Show all posts

June 14, 2010

Recap: Italy v Paraguay




Italy Loses to Paraguay: 1-1

Before I get to the game, I have to address the most startling development today for Italy fans. It was not our nation's tie with a very-beatable team, nor the first blood we allowed to be drawn by said team. No, the most startling, and worrisome development today was Gianluigi Buffon's exit from the net at halftime. It's not that Federico Marchetti played poorly in his place, but that Buffon, like the goalposts he defends, is the only physical foundation upon which Italy's game is built. It's true that the loss of Buffon would not change the form, skill or strategy Italy's attack, or defense. What it would change is our confidence in our defensive supremacy, our credentials to be champions. The best part about Italy's tight-knit juggernaut of a defense is the knowledge that upwards of 90% of what we let slip past is easily handled by Buffon. In the last World Cup, Buffon allowed no foreign striker access to the back of his net, reserving that privilege for Cristian Zaccardo and his own-goal. Buffon is a very visible safety net, a cushion, if you will, which comforts the entire team.

Apparently, Buffon had a "hamstring strain", though I'm not at all sure how. The Paraguayans managed all of three touches inside the box before their goal, and Buffon didn't jump for that ball. I hope that "hamstring strain" is just Lippi's language for, "I took him off because he didn't even jump towards Paraguay's goal, and I don't want you asking questions about that." Much of Italy may be a joke, including our laughable political system, which the ESPN commentators lampooned in today match, but Italians pray, every day, that God might keep one thing in our culture sacred (aside from food, obviously): Calcio. Football. And more specifically, our often-times miraculous dominance in it. I just hope that Buffon's "injury" is a sign from Lippi, and not a sign from the Almighty.

Then again, Buffon also ended his shutout streak for Italia in the 2006 Euro Cup. Perhaps more comfort is not what we need. As Italians, we tend to do best when we're put in a corner. If we perform, it's usually when we've let things go a tad too far, and our balls are on the line. We're the kind of people that, once punched in the face, proceed to start mouthing off at the asshole who did it. It's only when we're punched in the face a second time that we decide it might be a good idea to raise our fists and defend ourselves. For more on this theme, see my comments below on Di Natale, and the way Italy played today.

And how did today's game go?
Paraguay spent the first 20 minutes mounting absolutely no offensive effort, simply clearing the ball upon reaching midfield. Italy looked professional, with quick passes, clean touches, and deft maneuvering, making the Paraguayans look like schoolboys on the pitch. Fabio Cannavaro, who has played poorly in the last club season, looked well in command of himself, and the team. Lippi had him paying forward in more of a defensive midfield role, captializing on his tactical experience and letting the younger Domenico Criscito and Georgio Chiellini cover for his lack of pace. The only real chink in the armor came when Paraguay's Alcaraz scored an excellent header off a set piece in the first half. Alcaraz was Cannavaro's man, and Cannavaro clearly missed the coverage.
The midfield had it's ups and downs. Simone Pepe was very energetic and aggressive in his debut Cup match for Gli Azzurri. While his actual looks at goal were slightly less than inspired, his determined play on the wing slowly wore down Victor Caceres et al, and it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with throughout the tournament. Riccardo Montolivo, on the other hand, had a few opportune shots from just outside the box, and lacked both the power and the placement to finish.

Mauro Camoranesi came on in the 59th minute, and the offensive chemistry began to change. Minutes later, Daniele De Rossi delivered a brilliant volley into the back of the net from a corner kick, and Italy was back in the game.
In the 64th minute, the referee completely ignored what should have been an Italian penalty kick when Paraguay dragged down Alberto Gilardino on a break.
In the 72nd minute Lippi finally replaced Gilardino with Antonio Di Natale, the Serie A's top goalscorer last season. Di Natale didn't score, but his presence was immediately felt by Paraguay's defense. They drifted wider in spots to cover his unpredictble, and downright misdirecting movements. Another player to note,


In short, Paraguay deserved their goal, and it was beautiful. Italy should have scored more, and won the game. We have some creativity to stimulate, and we have a goalkeeper to worry about, but lest we get too disheartened, let's remember that this is almost we started our World Cup run in 2006: after beating Ghana 2-0, we tied the USA 1-1 with Zaccardo's own goal. Though it's not a particularly encouraging statement, I've seen worse from Gli Azzurri, and sometimes that's as much as Italy fans have to go on.

Leave your comments, correct the record, etc...




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June 7, 2010

Group F Predictions

Group F (in order of FIFA Rankings)
Italy (5)
Paraguay (31)
Slovakia (34)
New Zealand (78)

Group F may well be the easiest group in the tournament despite the fact that it features the defending champs and perennial threat Italy. What does this mean for predictions? Probably, it means that either Paraguay or Slovakia could go through depending on how their meetings with each other and with mercurial Italy go. Of course, given their history of slow starts, the defending champions are also likely to do something baffling like squeak through in their last game after inexplicably drawing against the tournament's weakest team: New Zealand.

Game by Game Predictions

Italy (w) v Paraguay

Much has been made of Italy's aging and now injured squad and their pitiful warm up friendlies lost to Mexico and drawn with Switzerland. The Italians have always been slow to warm up at the WC, even when they win it all, and they have a tendency to bring as much hustle as their respect for their opponent and the expedient of the moment demands. In 2006, this attitude had them half asleep for a red card plus own goal to draw with the USA. Nonetheless, the team has probably heard enough over the last three months about how they are both geriatric and under-talented to come out motivated against the team they know poses the most threat in their group. Expect them to be disciplined on defense and to have a killer instinct if Paraguay leave even one opening for the counter attack. Final result Italy 1, Paraguay 0.

New Zealand v Slovakia (w)

Let's be honest, the All Whites are just happy to be in South Africa and won't mind playing only thrice before heading out for a nice tourist safari of the country. Despite having nothing to lose, expect them to bounce out of the tournament without a point. Slovakia and their phenom trequartista, Marek Hamsik, will dispatch them with or without ease. Final result: NZ 0, Slovakia 2

Slovakia v Paraguay (w)

This is the match that will decide second place in the group. Slovakia is a plucky team that qualified without too much fuss. Paraguay, however, qualified in the monster South American confederation reaching third place behind Brazil and Chile and ahead of Argentina and Uruguay. How? By beating - among others - Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Yeah, they can handle Slovakia. Final result: Slovakia 1, Paraguay 3

Italy (w) v New Zealand

The Italians may still be digesting their pasta until the second half of this match so don't be surprised if it feels tighter than it should be. Nonetheless, Italy can and will reach for a bit of espresso during the halftime break to get a goal or two if they need it. All the All Whites' Maori War Dances won't be able to beat the defending champs. Final Result: Italy 2, NZ 0.

Slovakia v Italy (draw)

Marek Hamsik, Slovakia's star attacking midfielder plays in Italy and will know a trick or two for distributing and scoring goals against Cannavaro and co. Slovakia, desperate to advance after losing to Paraguay will bring everything they've got against an Italian team that will have all-but reached the next round and is conserving energy for the bigger fish in the knockout rounds. With Italy almost guaranteed to advance by this stage, don't be surprised when Slovakia go up early in the match. By the end of the second half, the Italians will turn it on, fired by the realization that they might face elimination unless NZ manages a miracle upset against Paraguay. The Italians always do just enough to advance and will score in the final 15 minutes for the draw. Final score Slovakia 1, Italy 1.

Paraguay (w) v New Zealand

Whatever an "All White" is, I hear they eat them for breakfast in Paraguay...after they grill them. The South Americans will take no chances but with advancement likely at this point, they will be eager to rack up some individual goals against their group's whipping boys. More interested in the fun of scoring at the WC, Paraguay will press up and could concede a consolation goal for the Kiwi team. Final Score, Paraguay 4, NZ 1.

FINAL GROUP RESULTS
1. Italy (7 Points)
2. Paraguay (6 Points)
3. Slovakia (4 Points)
4. New Zealand (0 Points)
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June 6, 2010

Which group is hardest to predict?

As I'm filling out my bracket, there are a number of tough decisions to be made. Some, however, are tougher than others. Which group is the most difficult to predict 1st place/2nd place? This is also, I suppose, an estimation of which group has the most parity. Some possible candidates:

Group A: France, Mexico, South Africa, Uruguay

France have a stunning team on paper but can't seem to make anything click. Mexico have some young stars and expect to make a good run of it this year. South Africa have the home advantage and expectations are surely high. Uruguay haven't advanced to the knockout round since 1990 but they have a good side now with Europa league winner Forlan in front.

Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana

With Essien missing, Ghana may struggle to gain points, but this seems like a close race for 2nd.

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia

Group C has the smallest range of FIFA rankings (England (8) and Algeria (30)) but it has two strong favorites as well.

Any thoughts?
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