It's number time on the Goalpo.st today as we look at the history of championship winning teams and their first round performances.
In the past 14 world cups, going back to Germany's first title and the start of the modern game in 1954:
- No championship team has ever lost their opening game.
- Only two teams, England and Italy, have ever drawn their opening game and gone on to win it all.
- The other 12 champions all won their opening games.
What does this mean for your team? Well, if you are Italy or England supporter today, take heart, not only is it still possible - statistically speaking - but your team is the only one to have already done it before! If you are Spaniard, sorry, but better luck next time.
Now, from the stats above you might assume that championship teams don't lose opening round games, but in fact they just don't lose their first opening round game.
Of the 14 winners:
11 did not lose a single game in their opening rounds. HOWEVER, only 3 of those eleven were undefeated in their opening games. That means that the most common results for a championship team is to advance from the 1st round with no losses and at least one draw.
Fun side note - Italy won it all in 1982 after advancing to the knockouts with three straight draws....
1 comments: on "Win, Loss, or Draw - What are your Team's Chances to Win it All?"
That's an excellent bit of statistical analysis, especially the side note. Only Italy could win after three straight draws. It's a testament to how we are really playing a different game than any other team on the pitch. In the shark-infested waters of the World-Cup, other teams try to out-swim all the sharks, Italy just tries to out-swim the other teams. We are consummate survivors, and so if we can't swim faster than them, we cut them.
Hey, it's about winning, after all.
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