Why you should not sleep on Mexico

First and foremost, they showed that they are capable of playing at the highest level yesterday, beating defending World Cup Champs Italy, 2-1.  Well to be honest, Mexico has shown they can play with the best in the past, but the troubling side of Mexico is how inconsistent they are.  I think that it all changes this World Cup.

First, you have the fact that Mexican league soccer (Primera Division) is surprisingly strong, most certainly sporting tougher competition than the MLS.  The Primera Division is now consistently creating players, while not at the same levels as Premier or La Liga, that can play high level international soccer.  While the U.S. sends their players to Europe so they can improve with stronger competition, La Primera Division is providing a ripe training ground for talented young Mexican players.  For example, of the 25 players that were on the roster when Mexico trounced the U.S. in the Gold Cup, 14 of them played in the Primera Division.  This means that we will most likely not see an awestruck Mexico team in South Africa, despite their young age.

Next, France is the most overrated team is the 2010 World Cup.  The high expectations for the French in this World Cup are predicated solely on what this team has done in the previous World Cups rather than the poor International play they have been exhibiting recently.  It's like catching your wife in bed with another man and saying it didn't happen because she's been good to you in the past.  The current French team is not what they used to be, Henry is no longer Henry and they do not have the supporting tools to be considered a sure shot for winner of the group.  To illustrate, their most recent friendly matches were a loss to China, a tie with Tunisia, and then a narrow win against a weak Costa Rican team.  Overall, we are looking at a French team that is no powerhouse and in my opinion will have to fight to advance.

Mexico is a great team to watch because they provide intrigue as well.  Their opening game match-up is the most compelling first game of the tournament.  Mexico badly needs to get all 3 points from South Africa in order to ensure that they back up their claim of the best team in the group.  A loss to South Africa not only makes that claim hard to argue, but it will most likely prevent them from finishing on top in the standings.  On the other side, South Africa, at the very least has to tie in order to not be considered an over-hyped host country from the outset.  Basically, South Africa's only hope of riding their home country wave to the second round is if they show the world that they can defeat teams like Mexico.  This game is a must watch.

Plus, the road through the World Cup might be relatively smooth for Mexico.  If Mexico can somehow fight its way past both South Africa and France in their first two matches, they will most likely win the group.   A number one seed in the group will mean that they will most likely face a Greece/Nigeria in the second round, two highly beatable teams for Mexico.  If Mexico can manufacture a victory against their second round opponents they will most likely face either Serbia/Ghana or U.S./England in the Quarterfinals.  One could envision, without too much dreaming, that Mexico could make it into the semifinals with their toughest competition being the U.S., a team that Mexico has shown they can beat.  This is clearly not a sure win situation given El Tri's inconsistency, however given the high levels that we have seen Mexico play this year I think that Mexico could be one of the most exciting dark horses of the tournament.