Group D Predictions

Group D (in order of FIFA Rankings)
Germany (6)
Serbia (15)
Australia (20)
Ghana (32)

Let me start off by saying that this is not the group of death.  That distinction, in my opinion, goes to Group F (Brazil, Portugal, Ivory Coast, and North Korea).  I think group D falls short of group of death status for one simple reason: no one is going to stop Germany from winning this group.  Therefore you really only have three possible scenarios for who will advance: Germany/Serbia, Germany/Australia, Germany/Ghana.  That being said ill go straight to my prediction of the winner of the group.


1. Germany (7 Points)

Even without Michael Ballack, Germany will cruise through this group.  There is just too much experience, physicality and scoring on this team.  Germany has a very impressive World Cup qualifier 26 goals for versus 5 goals against ratio.  This statistic alone tells the tale [Serbia 22-8, Australia 19-4, Ghana 20-8] because Germany has no problem getting on the board, where the rest of the teams in this group have serious trouble putting in goals against tough competition.  Germany were 8-2-0 in World Cup qualifiers, and I expect them to go at least 2-1-0 in the group stages of the World Cup.  I see Serbia giving them the toughest match-up problems because of strong defensive play and the way that Serbia is hot like Hansel right now.

What makes this group so interesting is the amount of parity that exists once you move past Germany.  To determine who is going to nab 2nd place in this group, it really boils down to whether you think Serbia, Ghana or Australia is more likely to have a good showing.  Many people argue that the continental inspiration will drive Ghana to the top.  Some argue that Australia's good showings in recent friendlies bode well for them.  And others say that Serbia looks too good on paper to not advance.

2. Serbia (5 Points)

The funny thing about this team is that they are good enough to shock Germany and weak enough to lose to Australia.  I am predicting they tie Germany and Australia.  They had a really poor showing losing to New Zealand (yes NZ!), but came back and shocked a strong Cameroon yesterday.  The only reason I pick them above Ghana is because of how good they look when they are on.  Again the key match up will be the 13th where they face off against Ghana, because this match will decide who takes second place and moves on.  If the good Serbia shows up, I see them handling an Essien-less Ghana fairly easily, however, if the bad Serbia shows up, look for Ghana to potentially embarrass this team.


3. Ghana (3 Points)

This prediction is entirely contingent on the fact that I do not think the Black Stars can surprise Serbia in their first match on the 13th without Essien.  Should they edge it out, then Ghana will clearly take 2nd place honors.  The one thing I truly like about this team is their dominance in playing against African teams, including runners up at the Cup of Nations (also without Essien).  However, they suffered a disastrous friendly loss to Netherlands 4-1, and barely edged a weak Latvia team 1-0.  I think they could have beaten Serbia at full strength and made a run into the elimination rounds, but the way it stands right now, they are too risky to pick for the number two spot.


4. Australia (1 Points)

I really just don't like this team.  They had the easiest road to qualifying, they are called the Socceroos and they looked very underwhelming against the U.S. yesterday.  A lot of people have Australia as a sleeper pick, but I'm not a believer, they will lose, nuff said.