Fundamentals of Fantasy 4 - Budgets, and the Wisdom of Waiting

The opening match of the World Cup is now less than 24 hours away. In the past 72 hours, like many of you, I have been obsessively remaking, reforming, and fiddling with my fantasy squad. Last-minute injuries pop up, speculation abounds in the blogosphere’s rumor-mills, and every minute shift in the terrain can shake the foundations of a fantasy team. All too soon, the free-selection period will be over (until the round of 16), and the obsessive team-changing will evolve into obsessive team-checking. Before that happens, and before it’s too late, I wanted to offer my brief thoughts on a different strategy for your team selection and budget:

Rather than trying to squeeze as many high-priced star out of your budget as possible, it may be a worthwhile strategy to keep some savings going into the first matchday (June 11-16). After all, every player is bound to change in value. Even experienced veterans may not play as consistently as their records would predict, and I guarantee that some players who are now tiny blips on the radar will outshine the glitzy stars. The best solution could be to keep some spare change (in addition to the prospects on your bench), and buy players in the first round that quickly show themselves to be worthy of your best suspicions. This tactic would allow you to jump onto any rapidly emerging bandwagons, and is as worthwhile for the fun that will entail, as for the fantasy points it will garner.

A note of caution: You would need to save, not only for purchasing power, but to afford the 3-credit transfer fees you would pay after your first, free, transfer. I wouldn’t recommend planning for more than 2 transfers in the first match-day, though, because a 3-credit deficit is one that will take a lot of prospecting to make up for (since player values change once a day, by 0.1 credits).

Basically, the question of saving room in the budget for first-round transfers comes down to a question of how secure you are, or want to be, in your selections. Do you want to be locked in before the tournament starts? Or do you want to have the opportunity to buy players (and teams) that immediately distinguish themselves as points-scorers in their first games.