Fundamentals of Fantasy 3 - Scoring

After a thorough review of FIFA's fantasy scoring rules, I've compiled a forecast of each position's point-scoring potential. The breakdowns will be found in the comments, but here are the executive summaries:

Goalkeepers:
A standard range of 2 to 12, with extreme performances of 0 to 13.
Average Potential: 7 points.

Defenders:
A standard range of -3 to 12, with extreme performances of -10 to 20.
Average Potential: 5 points.

Midfielders:
A standard range of 0 to 10-12, with extreme performances of -2 to 15-19.
Average Potential: 7 points.

Strikers:
A standard range of 0 to 13-15, with extreme performances of -4 to 17-21.
Average Potential: 8 points.

Of course, these estimates are just that. The attacking and defending bonuses are wild cards (1 point for every ball delivered into the penalty area, and 1 point for every recovered ball), and the World Cup always delivers situations that defy prediction. Also, the average potential points should be used more as a value metric than a realistic average performance for any given player.

That being said, I think that keepers and strikers are definitely your most valuable players, and important selections for scoring fantasy points. The penalty for giving up goals is minimal (1/2 point), and even the loss of the 6 points for a clean sheet could be made up for by lots of saves and penalty saves. I'd pick good keepers that will either face little pressure, because their team has good defense and is well-seeded, or will face outrageous pressure due to a strong opposition and weak defense. A good example of the former would be Italy's Gianluigi Buffon, while good examples of the latter would be the USA's Tim Howard (who will surely face a lot of shots against England, and is one of the most accomplished keepers in the world) or Brazil's Julio Cesar (who, if he isn't injured, will probably make a lot of saves for Brazil against the offensively-oriented Ivory Coast and Portugal).

Strikers are your big guns. If they fire repeatedly with goals and assists, they will do much for your team page, but if they are silent on the field, they'll be silent in your internet browser, as they have relatively few ways to earn points. I would pick strikers with a good goal-scoring pedigree, especially when playing for their country; having a playmaker who is not a finisher will not help your fantasy team very much. Also, since strikers are not penalized for their own defense's performance, you need not concern yourself too much with whether the team your striker is on will win, only that the striker will score goals. The Netherlands' Robin van Persie is a good example of this. Whether or not you be prolific in the penalty area, and van Persie should father many a goal.

When choosing defenders, the estimates show that you have to be defensive. Defenders can cost you a lot of points. Their team could have a bad game, or they could have a bad game, or both, and all can lead to negative points for your fantasy team. At the same time, defenders could also score as many points as most strikers. I'd try to select defenders on well-seeded teams with strong defenses, and avoid hotheads who foul, card, and give up penalties. By these terms, Fabio Cannavaro is the epitome of the ideal selection, and indeed he is on my fantasy team.

Midfielders are basically strikers with less potential for offensive points, and more potential for defensive points. Many midfielders will be less likely to score goals than their striking counterparts, but they may be more involved in setting up plays, which could lead to more attacking bonuses. Also, since midfielders are the first line of defense against deep play-making, those that succeed in stifling the counter-attack will probably rack up defending bonuses. Midfielders will also receive 1 point for a clean sheet, and so they will benefit from a strong defense. I'd select midfielders from well-seeded teams that have productive offenses and tight defenses. The first part of that statement pretty-much excludes Italy. Not that an Italian (or similar) midfielder would lose you points, but they probably won't gain you as much as, say, a German midfielder, whose team has a much higher probability of scoring 3+ goals in a game. In fact, Germany pretty much fits the bill for perfect midfield selections with their experienced and cutthroat defense, led by Phillip Lahm, and a hotshot competition between two young keepers trying to burnish Oliver Kahn's legacy. You will find that I have two German midfielders, Bastian Schweinsteiger, and Mesut Ozil, on my team.

Make your picks, and leave your comments.