Goldman Sachs may have taken a lot of heat lately, but they may have done themselves a great favor by releasing their 2010 World Cup Research Report earlier this month. Running a little over 70 pages, it's a remarkably in-depth summary of each country in this year's finals, including football prowess, economic state, and political situation. Furthermore, it provides a primer on the potential hosts of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, and, unsurprisingly but more than interesting, an examination of economic growth and decline vis-a-vis the international football teams of respective countries.
I confess that I haven't read the full Report. I encourage others to at least read Andrew Swift's post on the matter, if not the actual report.
For their sake, at the very end of the report, Goldman predicts that Brazil will win with 13% odds, followed by:
Spain 10.46%
Germany 9.4%
England 9.38%
Argentina 9.08%
Netherlands 7.07%
Italy is just below at 6.46%, and the US is just behind at 2.81%. In fact, the only team that separates Italy and the USA is France, at 6.13%. Given my dual Italo-American heritage, and my natural distaste for the French, this positioning tickles me. For those hoping for a miracle, South Africa is down near the bottom with 0.68%.
Given Goldman's reputation, and recent news-noteworthiness, I'm not putting much stock in their predictions. North Korea is dead last with .05%. Two thousand to one. Those are tough odds, but I tend to agree with Goldman on that one.
But what concerns me here is the prospects of team USA. The US qualified for each of the last 6 World Cups, an accomplishment which the likes of France, England, and the Netherlands can't claim. Plus, the US is definitely on the up and up, building experience and deep wells of young skill, while some names synonymous with greatness are languishing on laurels long since wilted. Looking forward, only China has more people playing football: 26 million. But the US is in a close second with 24 million, and as a per-capita rate that's our 8% to their 2%.
Now, China is also ranked 85th by FIFA, and only qualified for the World Cup once in the last eighty years, in 2002. By all accounts, the World Cup is quite popular in China, so it's at least significant for football popularity, if not prowess. They have had their moments in International play, however, as in what must have been a memorable 19-0 victory over Guam in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in 2000.
But still, I predict that in 20 years, if not sooner, the USA will be a formidable presence on the pitch. And while China may soon threaten our superiority in all manner of things, I think it'll be a long time before they threaten us in football.
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