The Blues for Les Bleus

So the finalists of last year's edition of the world cup crashed out at the earliest possible stage in South Africa 2010. I guess they just thought it was unfair, so they decided to let other teams have a chance. No, seriously though, both teams finished bottom of their group. France, with a group containing the weakest hosts ever, Mexico, and an Uruguay team that has yet to fully convince me. Italy, with arguably their weakest ever 23-man team, was blinded by their glory four years ago and decided to stick with a majority of those old sods this time around as well (i love you gattuso, but there comes a time and place...).

Let's talk about the actual Les Blues first. Leading up to the World Cup, the French media slandered Raymond Domenech and the entire France squad. The Hand of Henry incident in qualifying against Northern Ireland (would have loved to see them instead) already set the stage for what we would come to expect. The French needed extra time to breach Northern Ireland's defense? In fact, in this World Cup, they scored a grand total of 1 goal, 1 higher than what they did in the 2002 world cup (in 1998 they won it...do the winners of the previous world cups usually struggle the following one?). The squad selections of Domenech were less surprising than those of Lippi, but to not even include Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri as part of the initial 30 man provisional squad is ludicrous. When Domenech named his captain, Patrice Evra, William Gallas decided to issue an press silence throughout the World Cup, unhappy that he wasn't selected (when he captained Arsenal a few years ago, a draw against Birmingham City 2-2 would see him sit, complain, and sob on the pitch long after the match had been finished. Needless to say, he lost his captaincy). Domenech had already told Titi that he would have a marginal role in the squad and would be used as a substitute. Henry even publicly winced that the players this time around were not coming up to him for advice as they previously used to and that he felt slightly marginalised. Is Domenech the worst man-manager in the world? in 2006, at least he had Zizou, Vieira, Makelele, Henry, and they even deserved to win the world cup (yes, as an Italy fan I am publicly saying this).

The woeful displays of what we would, but shouldn't, call football followed. France against Uruguay was a boring stalemate, while their players felt like walking against Mexico because apparently they needed to watch re-runs of 'Lost in Translation' at home. After the match against Mexico, there was a bust-up between Anelka and Domenech, presumably because Anelka was subbed off at half-time (and rightly so because he was very lethargic for the first 45). Anelka allegedly called Domenech a 'son of a wh***'. And how did this get leaked to the general public? http://www.goal.com/en/news/1863/world-cup-2010/2010/06/19/1985116/france-defender-patrice-evra-speaks-of-traitor-within-les. A bunch of team members were unhappy with the treatment Anelka received, however, their captain, Evra, who is supposed to represent the pride of his country, even went AWOL for his press conference and publicly complained about a traitor. He even came and said that after the world cup, he would reveal ALL. The truth would be out.

The worst part is that EVEN THE POLITICIANS INTERVENED. They slandered the team, calling them a bunch of mercenaries who did not represent their country and did not care for wearing the national jersey (a lot of accusations were made by far right-wing politicians about the racial composition of the French team, of which I do not want to get into here because I simply don't know). In short, everyone was playing for themselves and not for their team.

The same cannot be said about Italy. I do believe Italy tried hard in this World Cup and I was not thorougly disappointed with their effort. The truth is that they just didn't have the requisite quality to get to the quarter-finals let alone semi-finals. (Honestly, with the Calciopoli struggles of 2006, it was a miracle Italy achieved what they did. This is because recent revelations have revealed that Juventus were not the only club in the wrong...Inter, Milan, and almost every other club secretly talked to referees...and I do think the players knew exactly how things were run...so it seems like there could have been a bitterness towards each other because some were getting unfairly punished, while others weren't). Even if they won or drawn their last match against Slovakia, they would have struggled against Holland and even Japan. Buffon, Cannavaro, and a host of other champions publicly came out and inquired about whether Italy truly had a world-class squad. Maradona went further and stated that Italy had no world class players this year. Couldn't agree more. I'm not saying the inclusions of Cassano, Totti, Balotelli, or Miccoli would have been a winning formula, but it would have added some spark to the much needed Italian attack. Only in the last 20 minutes of the last game against Slovakia did they showcase some magnificent football, only to be denied a legitimate goal. But hey, that's football.

I am really angry mainly at Marcello Lippi. True, he will forever be a legend and a statue should be erected in Rome for what he had done 4 years ago. But you simply cannot use your friendships to build your team. A nation's and more's hopes were resting on those 23-men. When this squad was selected, it was clear that Pazzini, Quagliarella, Gilardino, Iaquinta could not deliver the goods. It was very unpatriotic of Lippi to do this. The media, sometimes a bit too instrusive, really hit the nail this time around. Alas, what can we do now. When a (un)spectacle plays itself out in front of you and there is absolutely nothing you can do to change the course of events, you must simply accept defeat. Hopefully in 4 years.

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Round 3: Possibilities: Ghana, New Zealand, and Group H

As we get ready for day 2 of round 3, here are some potential shockers to be served up by the likes of New Zealand, Ghana, and all of Group H

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Win, Loss, or Draw - What are your Team's Chances to Win it All?

It's number time on the Goalpo.st today as we look at the history of championship winning teams and their first round performances.

In the past 14 world cups, going back to Germany's first title and the start of the modern game in 1954:

- No championship team has ever lost their opening game.
- Only two teams, England and Italy, have ever drawn their opening game and gone on to win it all.
- The other 12 champions all won their opening games.

What does this mean for your team? Well, if you are Italy or England supporter today, take heart, not only is it still possible - statistically speaking - but your team is the only one to have already done it before! If you are Spaniard, sorry, but better luck next time.

Now, from the stats above you might assume that championship teams don't lose opening round games, but in fact they just don't lose their first opening round game.

Of the 14 winners:

11 did not lose a single game in their opening rounds. HOWEVER, only 3 of those eleven were undefeated in their opening games. That means that the most common results for a championship team is to advance from the 1st round with no losses and at least one draw.

Fun side note - Italy won it all in 1982 after advancing to the knockouts with three straight draws....

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Recap: Italy v Paraguay

Italy Loses to Paraguay: 1-1

Before I get to the game, I have to address the most startling development today for Italy fans. It was not our nation's tie with a very-beatable team, nor the first blood we allowed to be drawn by said team. No, the most startling, and worrisome development today was Gianluigi Buffon's exit from the net at halftime. It's not that Federico Marchetti played poorly in his place, but that Buffon, like the goalposts he defends, is the only physical foundation upon which Italy's game is built. It's true that the loss of Buffon would not change the form, skill or strategy Italy's attack, or defense. What it would change is our confidence in our defensive supremacy, our credentials to be champions. The best part about Italy's tight-knit juggernaut of a defense is the knowledge that upwards of 90% of what we let slip past is easily handled by Buffon. In the last World Cup, Buffon allowed no foreign striker access to the back of his net, reserving that privilege for Cristian Zaccardo and his own-goal. Buffon is a very visible safety net, a cushion, if you will, which comforts the entire team.

Apparently, Buffon had a "hamstring strain", though I'm not at all sure how. The Paraguayans managed all of three touches inside the box before their goal, and Buffon didn't jump for that ball. I hope that "hamstring strain" is just Lippi's language for, "I took him off because he didn't even jump towards Paraguay's goal, and I don't want you asking questions about that." Much of Italy may be a joke, including our laughable political system, which the ESPN commentators lampooned in today match, but Italians pray, every day, that God might keep one thing in our culture sacred (aside from food, obviously): Calcio. Football. And more specifically, our often-times miraculous dominance in it. I just hope that Buffon's "injury" is a sign from Lippi, and not a sign from the Almighty.

Then again, Buffon also ended his shutout streak for Italia in the 2006 Euro Cup. Perhaps more comfort is not what we need. As Italians, we tend to do best when we're put in a corner. If we perform, it's usually when we've let things go a tad too far, and our balls are on the line. We're the kind of people that, once punched in the face, proceed to start mouthing off at the asshole who did it. It's only when we're punched in the face a second time that we decide it might be a good idea to raise our fists and defend ourselves. For more on this theme, see my comments below on Di Natale, and the way Italy played today.

And how did today's game go?
Paraguay spent the first 20 minutes mounting absolutely no offensive effort, simply clearing the ball upon reaching midfield. Italy looked professional, with quick passes, clean touches, and deft maneuvering, making the Paraguayans look like schoolboys on the pitch. Fabio Cannavaro, who has played poorly in the last club season, looked well in command of himself, and the team. Lippi had him paying forward in more of a defensive midfield role, captializing on his tactical experience and letting the younger Domenico Criscito and Georgio Chiellini cover for his lack of pace. The only real chink in the armor came when Paraguay's Alcaraz scored an excellent header off a set piece in the first half. Alcaraz was Cannavaro's man, and Cannavaro clearly missed the coverage.
The midfield had it's ups and downs. Simone Pepe was very energetic and aggressive in his debut Cup match for Gli Azzurri. While his actual looks at goal were slightly less than inspired, his determined play on the wing slowly wore down Victor Caceres et al, and it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with throughout the tournament. Riccardo Montolivo, on the other hand, had a few opportune shots from just outside the box, and lacked both the power and the placement to finish.

Mauro Camoranesi came on in the 59th minute, and the offensive chemistry began to change. Minutes later, Daniele De Rossi delivered a brilliant volley into the back of the net from a corner kick, and Italy was back in the game.
In the 64th minute, the referee completely ignored what should have been an Italian penalty kick when Paraguay dragged down Alberto Gilardino on a break.
In the 72nd minute Lippi finally replaced Gilardino with Antonio Di Natale, the Serie A's top goalscorer last season. Di Natale didn't score, but his presence was immediately felt by Paraguay's defense. They drifted wider in spots to cover his unpredictble, and downright misdirecting movements. Another player to note,


In short, Paraguay deserved their goal, and it was beautiful. Italy should have scored more, and won the game. We have some creativity to stimulate, and we have a goalkeeper to worry about, but lest we get too disheartened, let's remember that this is almost we started our World Cup run in 2006: after beating Ghana 2-0, we tied the USA 1-1 with Zaccardo's own goal. Though it's not a particularly encouraging statement, I've seen worse from Gli Azzurri, and sometimes that's as much as Italy fans have to go on.

Leave your comments, correct the record, etc...

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Group F Predictions

Group F (in order of FIFA Rankings)
Italy (5)
Paraguay (31)
Slovakia (34)
New Zealand (78)

Group F may well be the easiest group in the tournament despite the fact that it features the defending champs and perennial threat Italy. What does this mean for predictions? Probably, it means that either Paraguay or Slovakia could go through depending on how their meetings with each other and with mercurial Italy go. Of course, given their history of slow starts, the defending champions are also likely to do something baffling like squeak through in their last game after inexplicably drawing against the tournament's weakest team: New Zealand.

Game by Game Predictions

Italy (w) v Paraguay

Much has been made of Italy's aging and now injured squad and their pitiful warm up friendlies lost to Mexico and drawn with Switzerland. The Italians have always been slow to warm up at the WC, even when they win it all, and they have a tendency to bring as much hustle as their respect for their opponent and the expedient of the moment demands. In 2006, this attitude had them half asleep for a red card plus own goal to draw with the USA. Nonetheless, the team has probably heard enough over the last three months about how they are both geriatric and under-talented to come out motivated against the team they know poses the most threat in their group. Expect them to be disciplined on defense and to have a killer instinct if Paraguay leave even one opening for the counter attack. Final result Italy 1, Paraguay 0.

New Zealand v Slovakia (w)

Let's be honest, the All Whites are just happy to be in South Africa and won't mind playing only thrice before heading out for a nice tourist safari of the country. Despite having nothing to lose, expect them to bounce out of the tournament without a point. Slovakia and their phenom trequartista, Marek Hamsik, will dispatch them with or without ease. Final result: NZ 0, Slovakia 2

Slovakia v Paraguay (w)

This is the match that will decide second place in the group. Slovakia is a plucky team that qualified without too much fuss. Paraguay, however, qualified in the monster South American confederation reaching third place behind Brazil and Chile and ahead of Argentina and Uruguay. How? By beating - among others - Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Yeah, they can handle Slovakia. Final result: Slovakia 1, Paraguay 3

Italy (w) v New Zealand

The Italians may still be digesting their pasta until the second half of this match so don't be surprised if it feels tighter than it should be. Nonetheless, Italy can and will reach for a bit of espresso during the halftime break to get a goal or two if they need it. All the All Whites' Maori War Dances won't be able to beat the defending champs. Final Result: Italy 2, NZ 0.

Slovakia v Italy (draw)

Marek Hamsik, Slovakia's star attacking midfielder plays in Italy and will know a trick or two for distributing and scoring goals against Cannavaro and co. Slovakia, desperate to advance after losing to Paraguay will bring everything they've got against an Italian team that will have all-but reached the next round and is conserving energy for the bigger fish in the knockout rounds. With Italy almost guaranteed to advance by this stage, don't be surprised when Slovakia go up early in the match. By the end of the second half, the Italians will turn it on, fired by the realization that they might face elimination unless NZ manages a miracle upset against Paraguay. The Italians always do just enough to advance and will score in the final 15 minutes for the draw. Final score Slovakia 1, Italy 1.

Paraguay (w) v New Zealand

Whatever an "All White" is, I hear they eat them for breakfast in Paraguay...after they grill them. The South Americans will take no chances but with advancement likely at this point, they will be eager to rack up some individual goals against their group's whipping boys. More interested in the fun of scoring at the WC, Paraguay will press up and could concede a consolation goal for the Kiwi team. Final Score, Paraguay 4, NZ 1.

FINAL GROUP RESULTS
1. Italy (7 Points)
2. Paraguay (6 Points)
3. Slovakia (4 Points)
4. New Zealand (0 Points)

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My Italy Team Selections

My Starting Team: (in parentheses are possible alternative if starter proves inadequate or injured - Super Sub stated if they shouldn't start but should maybe come in for 30 minutes of hard work, this applies especially to the older players)

Buffon

Criscito (Super Zambrotta), Canna (Bonnuci/Bocchetti), Chiellini(Bonnuci/Bocchetti), Maggio (Super Zambrotta)

Marchisio, De Rossi (Super Gattuso),

Pepe (Super Camoranesi), Pirlo, Di Natale,

Gilardino (Super Iaquinta)

Backups:

GK De Sanctis
GK Marchetti
M Montolivo
M Palombo
F Pazzini
F Quagliarella

Take issue with my selections! Who would you chose for the Azzurri?

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Also, a quick word about France and the French:

Not that this is necessarily a family-friendly blog, but I will refrain from summing up my thoughts on the French in one rude (French) word.

Instead I'll use a lot of rude words:

In full disclosure, I am the son of the land whose very geography screams equal parts football dominance and hatred for the French, with a powerful boot punting Sicily into France's backside. So much do we hate the French, that we would sacrifice Sicily to embarrass them. But seriously, we hate the French football team, or as they call themselves, Le Blu.

France's last hero through the 2006 World Cup and the 2008 Euro Cup, Thierry Henry, had a hot season in 08-09 but not so much in 09-10. He basically went from scoring a goal every 1.6 games, to every 6.8 games, so we'll see how that plays out.

I will refrain from making the obligatory French hand-job joke regarding France's qualification against Ireland, but it did evoke scenes of the Germany-USA Quarter-Final match in the 2002 World Cup. I hate to say it, but France is probably going to make it out of group A. Perhaps not ahead, but alive.

I welcome the push-back from fans of France, but know that I will rarely, if ever, grace these pages with positive comments about the French side.

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